Overview
Sudan is in the grip of a multi-layered catastrophe. Since April 2023, fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has caused an estimated 150,000+ deaths, displaced over 10 million people, collapsed public services, triggered hyperinflation exceeding 1,000% annually, and left 25+ million people food insecure.
The framework argues that neither continued warfare nor rushed political settlements offer a sustainable exit. All previous transition attempts have failed by repeating the same structural mistakes: military actors retaining power, elites cutting deals without broader representation, and elections held before legitimate conditions existed.
Core Argument
The framework’s central premise is that transition cannot begin until military dynamics fundamentally shift.
It proposes a 7.5-year, phased roadmap — spanning seven distinct phases from security stabilisation to full democratic elections — to move Sudan from crisis to constitutional civilian governance.
The approach explicitly rejects international trusteeship, insisting the process must be Sudanese-led, with international actors playing supporting, guarantor, and funding roles.
Key Findings
Previous failures stemmed from military actors retaining veto power, armed groups being rewarded with political positions without demobilising, and external mediators lacking enforcement leverage.
Sudan’s war economies — including gold smuggling, militia taxation, and aid capture — have become entrenched, making economic transformation as urgent as political reform.
Social fragmentation — ethnic violence, deep inter-communal distrust, and an entire generation out of school — means reconciliation must be sequenced carefully alongside, not after, governance reform.
Regional powers (Egypt, UAE, and Saudi Arabia) have actively sustained the conflict through competing interests, making their alignment a prerequisite for any transition.
Practical Recommendations
- Establish Verifiable Preconditions Before Any Transition Begins
Military exhaustion indicators, ceasefire monitoring, and regional power alignment signals must all be assessed before Phase I is triggered.
This prevents premature or cosmetic transitions that collapse quickly.
- Build Civilian Capacity Now, During the Conflict
Diaspora professionals, civil society actors, and technical experts should be organised and trained in exile so a civilian administration can deploy rapidly when conditions allow — rather than scrambling to fill a vacuum.
- Sequence Justice Carefully
Begin accountability processes with economic crimes and corruption — which are less destabilising — and progress to prosecutions for mass atrocities only as security and institutions strengthen.
Premature ICC-style processes risk spoiler violence and transition collapse.
- Run Economic Recovery as a Parallel, Not Sequential, Track
Stabilisation programmes, debt relief conditioned on reform milestones, war economy transformation, and youth employment schemes must operate simultaneously with political phases — not wait for governance to be resolved first.
- Condition International Funding and Legitimacy on Verified Benchmarks
Each phase transition should require independently verified progress — such as SAF withdrawal from civilian ministries or armed group demobilisation targets — before international partners unlock the next tranche of resources.
The framework estimates that $15 billion or more will be required over the transition period.
- Co-opt Regional Powers Through Aligned Incentives
Rather than treating Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia as spoilers to be managed, the framework recommends structuring agreements that align their economic and security interests with transition success — reducing the likelihood they fund competing factions.
Conclusion
This framework is ambitious but grounded in hard-learned lessons from Sudan’s own failed transitions and comparable regional cases.
Its central strength lies in its refusal to compress timelines for political convenience, prioritising durable civilian governance over speed.
